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Australia has one of the lowest in the world of smoking, less than one in five people, but it still will be a key battleground for the tobacco industry in 2012.
Since the beginning of December in the strict laws against smoking in the world, tobacco companies will sell their products in the same gray box, no logo, but with graphic images of smoking-related diseases. Trademarks may still appear, but the default font on the front of each package.
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Big Tobacco began to aggressively fight back with a simple law of the package. Restrictions on the $ 9.5 billion a year market for smoking in Australia, do not pose a big threat to profits. But most concern is that, like the ban on smoking in public places is distributed from California around the world, the movement in Australia can spread to the $ 161bn market cigarettes in the European Union and beyond.
Some analysts even increase the likelihood that emerging markets can implement similar laws giving big tobacco even more problems.
"Obviously, it is possible others will follow," said Michael Prideaux, Director of Corporate Affairs at British American Tobacco (BAT), who described the move to plain packaging as part of the "de-normalize tobacco use."
A person familiar with internal discussions at Philip Morris International (PMI), the second largest in the world stock of cigarettes in terms of sales, said: "This is the alpha and omega because tobacco companies are interested."
The European Union is considering the introduction of plain packaging as part of the proposed changes to the regulation of tobacco is expected later this year. The UK Department of Health is due to publish the results of its consultation on plain packaging in the spring.
The battle lines are already drawn. In the UK Tobacco Imperial, BAT and Japan Tobacco (JTI) have helped to shape the libertarian style of campaign group "Hands off our packages." He urged his supporters not to say that "more Nanny State dictates."
"Our main argument is that people are informed and should be allowed to have an adult choice," said Paul Williams, head of corporate relations in the JTI. "The ban could force their way to alcohol and obesity."
JTI, PMI and the Australian arms of BAT and Imperial all the legal problems began within a few days, the Australian Act passed in November last year, the federal parliament in Canberra.
They argue, simply breaking the law package the Australian constitution, will cost taxpayers billions of lost excise duty, and will be a boon for cigarette smugglers. They say there is no evidence that it will reduce smoking. The High Court of Australia is expected to hear the case in April.
But privately, all tobacco companies are preparing for life after a simple package. In particular, they consider how to market different brands of cigarettes that look the same.
"Word of mouth will become increasingly important," said Mr. Prideaux. "We have to distinguish between the products of different [than in the past] ... probably more to taste, to give consumers what they want to talk."
There is a growing concern among big tobacco that price wars can ensue.
"Without a brand, how do you mark?" Said Peter Nixon, Vice President of Communications PMI. "We believe the brand will have a choice strikers to be about the price ... we will see price drops, so we are likely to see profits fall."
In the past year, PMI published the internal investigation; see FT, in which he predicted the average price of cigarettes, falling to 19 percent if a simple package was implemented in the company to compete on price.
The cost will be difficult in emerging markets, where companies try to convince the new middle class consumers in the trade up to premium brands.
Jonathan Fell, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said he was not worried about the reduction of short-term rates of smoking, tobacco companies have the ability to achieve high prices can be questioned.
"It's clearly something investors will be interested if it is implemented," he said. "I do not think there's a lot of differences between developed and developing countries in terms of regulation. In countries such as Brazil and South Africa in the past, they tend to quickly capture and implement what others have done."
Publicly, the companies are confident in the victory of their cause by a court in Australia. If the court to force the government to retreat, they hope it will serve as a model for other states considering the simple laws of the package.
Alex Parsons, director of corporate communications at Imperial, said he does not believe will be immediately "domino effect".
"I think the others will wait and see how it plays in Australia," he said.
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